Serbia vs Germany — match analysis

⚽ **Serbia vs Germany** 📅 **13 November 2026, 19:45 UTC** 🏟 **Rajko Mitić Stadium, Belgrade · UEFA Nations League** 🏆 **RESULT ASSESSMENT** Germany win Winner confidence: **Medium** Germany have five points from four group matches, compared with Serbia’s four defeats. Germany also won the reverse fixture 2–0. However, Germany have drawn both away matches and scored only three group-stage goals, limiting confidence. 🛡 **SAFER RESULT ASSESSMENT** X2 — Germany or Draw Double-chance confidence: **Medium-high** Germany are unbeaten across their two away group matches, while Serbia have no points from four. A substantial Serbian home rebound remains the main failure scenario. 🥅 **GOALS** Under 3.5 — **Medium-high confidence** All eight team-match observations in the current group campaign finished below four goals. Over 1.5 — **Tentative lean, Medium-low confidence** Six of eight observations finished above 1.5 goals, including all four Serbian matches. Two German matches nevertheless produced no more than one goal. Over/Under 2.5 — **NO PICK** Serbia’s results lean towards at least three goals, while Germany’s results strongly lean below three. The available evidence does not resolve that conflict. 📊 **BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE** **NO PICK** BTTS confidence: **Low in either side** Serbia scored and conceded in three of four group matches, but BTTS occurred in only one of Germany’s four. These indicators point in opposing directions. 🎯 **INDICATIVE SCORES** Main scenario: **Serbia 0–1 Germany** Alternatives: **Serbia 0–2 Germany or Serbia 1–1 Germany** Score confidence: **Low** These are illustrative scenarios reflecting Germany’s stronger defensive record, modest scoring output, the 2–0 reverse result and their two away draws. They are not high-confidence correct-score positions. 🔎 **OVERALL CONFIDENCE** **Medium-low** Serbia stand at 0W–0D–4L with a 3–8 goal record. Germany are 1W–2D–1L with a 3–2 record. Serbia’s two home fixtures were both 1–2 defeats; Germany’s two away fixtures ended 1–1 and 0–0. ⚠️ **What could change the picture?** The sample covers only four competition matches per team. Final starting line-ups and late withdrawals had not been verified. Full expected-goals, shot-quality and goalkeeper-performance evidence was unavailable from an official source. Serbia have a confirmed midfield absence and their coach is suspended from the bench, while Germany also have a confirmed defensive withdrawal. Attendance restrictions may reduce Serbia’s usual home advantage, but that factor should not be overstated. No bookmaker odds were reviewed, so the research does not assess value against a price. The descriptive frequencies overlap because the reverse fixture appears in both teams’ records and should not be treated as two independent observations. 🕒 **Research checked:** 13 November 2026, approximately 00:47–00:48 UTC. **Sources:** - [Hellenic Football Federation group table](https://www.epo.gr/en/matches/mens-national-team/10059) - [UEFA results by team](https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/news/02a2-1fea7079900a-801b2c5f6c9e-1000--2026-27-uefa-nations-league-league-phase-fixtures-by-team/) - [DFB squad announcement](https://www.dfb.de/news/fuellkrug-and-mohya-included-as-klopp-names-squad-for-serbia-and-netherlands) - [Football Association of Serbia injury update](https://fss.rs/aleksandar-stankovic-zbog-povrede-propusta-utakmice-protiv-nemacke-i-grcke/?script=lat) - [Serbia pre-match press conference](https://fss.rs/paunovic-da-pokazemo-karakter-i-popravimo-utisak-tadic-svi-smo-tu-da-reprezentaciju-ucinimo-boljom/?script=lat) - [DFB injury update](https://www.dfb.de/news/baku-called-up-after-anton-ruled-out-with-injury) #Serbia #Germany #UEFANationsLeague